Service Plays Wednesday 10/6/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB DUNKEL

Texas at Tampa Bay
The Rangers look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games following an off day. Texas is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.071; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.659
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-205); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-205); Over

Game 953-954: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lee) 16.439; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+110); Under

Game 955-956: NY Yankees at Minnesota (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.769; Minnesota (Liriano) 16.830
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NLDS preview and pick: Phillies vs. Reds

The Reds have been a feel-good story this season but will their no-name rotation cost them against the two-time defending National League champs and World Series favorites Phillies?

SERIES ODDS: Philadelphia Phillies (-270) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+245)

PITCHING

The Phillies did themselves a huge favor by putting up the National League’s best record. Not only will Philadelphia have home field throughout the playoffs, but its status as the top seed allowed the club to choose an eight-day schedule for its NLDS matchup. That means the Phillies can go with an intimidating three-man rotation of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels without having any of them pitch on short rest.

The Reds will go with Edinson Volquez in Game 1 followed by Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto. Volquez missed the first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and struggled on his return but has looked much better lately. He’s allowed just six runs over 27 2-3 innings while racking up 31 strikeouts over his last four starts.

The Reds and Phillies have both been very average in relief, but we give Philadelphia a slight edge because its group is fresher. Philadelphia relievers pitched an MLB-low 415 innings this season – a testament to the ability of its starters to work deep into games.

Brad Lidge has been nearly unhittable in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Lidge has converted 21 of 23 save opportunities while holding opposing hitters to a .157 average.

Edge: Phillies

OFFENSE

Cincinnati’s lineup is one of the most potent in the National League in 2010. They lead the league in a host of offensive categories including batting average (.271), home runs (187) and runs per game (4.9). Joey Votto has had an MVP-caliber season batting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. Votto is hitting .393 against the Phillies in 28 at-bats. The Reds are batting an NL-best .278 with runners in scoring position.

The Phillies’ lineup is smoking hot, averaging 5.6 runs per game since the start of September. Over that same stretch, the Reds have averaged just 4.2 runs per game.

Jayson Werth had a big September belting eight homers and piling up 20 RBIs. Werth is Philadelphia’s most dangerous batter against righties, hitting a team-high 20 home runs off right-handed pitching. With Cincinnati using three right-handed starters to begin the series and Werth playing for a new contract, we think this could be his time to shine.

The Reds have had the more productive lineup over the course of the season, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Phillies are red hot at the right time and their lineup is full of players who’ve come up with big hits in October.

Slight Edge: Phillies

INTANGIBLES

The gritty, battle-tested Phillies have ample playoff experience while many of the Reds’ key players are playing in their first ever postseason. To make matters worse for Cincinnati, the Phillies have all the momentum. At 21-6, Philadelphia had the best record in baseball in September. The Reds have good talent, and we think there’s postseason success in Cincinnati’s future – but not this year.

Pick: Phillies in three games

 

[dough]

teddy covers

yanks/minn over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ALDS preview and pick: Yankees vs. Twins

The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored, but will shaky starting pitching derail their hopes of a repeat?

SERIES ODDS: New York Yankees (-184) vs. Minnesota Twins (+169)

PITCHING

It’s a safe bet that the Yankees will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound in Wednesday’s series opener. Outside of that, nobody knows exactly what Joe Girardi’s postseason rotation will look like. We suspect it will be a three-man rotation featuring Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes, in that order. If so, that’s a dangerous proposition for the defending champs.

After spending two months on the disabled list with a strained groin, Pettitte returned to go 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts down the stretch. He beat the Twins in last year’s ALDS and has a long history of postseason success, but has not looked like himself lately.

The Twins will go with a four-man rotation, headlined by Game 1 starter Francisco Liriano. Liriano has had a big season for Minnesota but is just 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA in his last four starts. He will be followed by Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and if a Game 4 is necessary, Nick Blackburn. You can bet Pavano’s reception at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 will be less than friendly. The man dubbed “American Idle” by the New York tabloids made just 26 starts in a four-year stint as a Yankee from 2005-2008.

The incomparable Mariano Rivera gives the Yankees a slight edge in the bullpen. Rivera has blown three saves in his last seven chances, but when the money’s on the line, we still trust him more than any closer in baseball.

The bottom line is that the lack of reliable depth in New York’s rotation should have Yankee backers more than a little nervous.

Edge: Twins

OFFENSE

The Twins’ title hopes took a blow on Monday when they announced that Justin Morneau would not return for the playoffs. Morneau, who has been out since early July with a concussion, had hoped to return in time for a potential ALCS matchup.

While we’d never suggest Minnesota is better off without Morneau, his teammates deserve credit for stepping up in his absence. The Twins averaged 4.7 runs per game with Morneau, but are scoring 5.0 runs per game since his injury. Since the All-Star break, Joe Mauer is batting a torrid .373 and Jim Thome is hitting .313 with 15 homers. Delmon Young’s 54 second-half RBIs are the third-most in the American League.

For the second straight season, the Yankees led the majors in runs per game (5.3). Their lineup is as devastating as it is deep, especially now that Alex Rodriguez has hit his stride. Since Sept. 1, A-Rod is batting .309 and leads the team with 26 RBIs.

This has been a breakout year for Robinson Cano. Cano is hitting .319 on the season and has piled up 29 homers and 109 RBIs, both career highs. He is batting a team-best .322 with runners in scoring position and has played Gold-Glove caliber defense at second base. We think this is the year that Cano, a lifetime .217 postseason hitter, makes his mark in October.

Edge: Yankees

INTANGIBLES

Make no mistake: the aura of the pinstripes can be intimidating. Gardenhire’s teams have played fundamentally sound baseball over the years, but they looked unfocused while being swept by the Yankees last October. In fact, the Yankees are 54-18 against Gardenhire’s Twins since 2002, a disparity we can’t overlook.

Minnesota had a better September than New York, but that doesn’t outweigh the Yankees’ postseason experience.

Edge: Yankees

Pick: Yankees in five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ALDS preview and pick: Rangers vs. Rays

It’s must-see television when Cliff Lee and David Price square off on Wednesday afternoon.

SERIES ODDS: Tampa Bay Rays (-139) vs. Texas Rangers (+128)

PITCHING

Wednesday’s tilt between Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18) and David Price (19-6, 2.72) represents the best series-opening pitching matchup of the first round. Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five postseason starts last year, but is 0-3 against the Rays this season. Price is 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2010.

The Rangers will start C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis in games two and three respectively, while the Rays will counter with Matt Garza and Wade Davis. It’s been a long season for Davis, but he has pitched well down the stretch. In his last five appearances, the 25-year-old right-hander has allowed just eight runs in 28 2-3 innings of work.

Both teams are strong in the bullpen. Rays relievers led the American League with a 3.33 ERA, while the Rangers were second at 3.38. Rafael Soriano has been brilliant at the back of the Rays’ bullpen, recording a league-leading 45 saves in 48 chances. Neftali Feliz has been almost as good for Texas, saving 40 games in 43 tries.Feliz hasn’t allowed a run in his last 16 appearances, a stretch over which he’s surrendered only six hits.

It’s a close call, but we think Lee’s recent postseason success gives them the advantage.

Slight Edge: Rangers

OFFENSE

Speed is the name of the game for the Rays, who rank third in the majors in runs scored despite being last in the American League in batting average (.247). In Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, Tampa Bay has two of the league’s most dangerous threats on the base paths. By themselves, Crawford and Upton combined for more steals (89) than twelve major league teams. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, Carl Crawford could earn himself a boatload of money if his performance in the playoffs is as good as it was in the regular season.

The Rays hope that Evan Longoria’s health isn’t an issue when the playoffs get underway. Longoria hasn’t played since Sept. 23 because of a strained quad. Manager Joe Maddon says that Longoria’s absence was precautionary, but the situation bears watching. Longoria will be in the lineup Wednesday night, but the Rays will really miss his pop if he is limited.

The Rangers have injury worries of their own. AL batting champion Josh Hamilton missed most of September with two broken ribs. Hamilton played in all three games of last weekend’s series against Anaheim. He collected three hits, including his 32nd home run of the season, but admitted feeling some tightness and soreness. Hamilton means as much to the Rangers as Longoria does to the Rays, if not more. If Hamilton’s sore ribs diminish his power at the plate, the Rangers are in trouble.

Vladimir Guerrero was essentially left on the scrap heap in the offseason when Texas signed him to a modest one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011. Guerrero has responded with a huge season, batting .300 with 29 homers and 115 RBI.

Texas excels at putting the ball in play. The Rangers are batting a major league-leading .276 and have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in baseball (986).

We respect Texas’ efficiency up and down the lineup, but Tampa Bay’s speed at the top of its lineup is lethal, especially late in close games, which this series figures to have plenty of.

Slight Edge: Rays

INTANGIBLES

The Rays have more playoff experience, and home field advantage is key considering the Rangers are three games below .500 on the road. Tampa Bay has an advantage in the late innings because of its ability to manufacture runs and its strong bullpen. We think the Rays capitalize on that and win a close series.

Pick: Rays in five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NLDS preview and pick: Braves vs. Giants

Can Bobby Cox take another step towards his second championship or will San Francisco’s starting pitching put them over the top?

SERIES ODDS: San Francisco Giants (-160) vs. Atlanta Braves (+147)

OFFENSE

Atlanta ranks fifth in the National League in runs per game (4.6) and leads the league in doubles and on-base percentage.

The Braves caught a bad break last week when they learned Martin Prado would miss the remainder of the season with a hip pointer and a torn oblique. Prado was batting .307 with 15 long balls for Atlanta, which ranks 11th in homers in the NL.

Jason Heyward and Brian McCann have been the two main power sources for the Braves, combining for 39 of Atlanta’s 139 home runs. Heyward, a favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, has made a big splash in his first big league season, belting 18 homers and leading the Braves with an .849 OPS.

Not to be outdone, the Giants have a phenom of their own in Buster Posey. Posey has piled up 67 RBI in just 406 at-bats and is Heyward’s main competition for the Rookie of the Year award.

General Manager Brian Sabean made one of the shrewdest signings of the offseason when he inked Aubrey Huff to one-year deal worth $3 million. Huff leads the Giants in homers (26), RBI (86), on-base percentage (.385) and slugging percentage (.506).

The Braves will miss Prado, but are still better with the bats. The Giants rank ninth in the National League in runs scored and are batting just .197 in seven games against the Braves this season.

Edge: Braves

PITCHING

If the Giants make a World Series push, it will be their starting pitching depth that gets them there. San Francisco will go with an impressive four-man rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and rookie Madison Bumgarner. The Giants’ staff led the majors with a 3.36 ERA and was lights out down the stretch, posting an almost-unfathomable 1.78 ERA in the month of September.

Atlanta will send Derek Lowe to the mound in Game 1, followed by Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hudson (17-9, 2.83) had a solid season for the Braves but pitched poorly over his last seven starts, going 2-4 and allowing four or more runs on five occasions. The series may hinge on Hudson’s ability to bounce back from his lackluster finish.

Both the Giants (2.99) and Braves (3.11) finished in the top three in baseball in bullpen ERA. Brian Wilson has been a bulldog at the back of San Francisco’s pen, leading the majors with a career-high 48 saves. Billy Wagner blew seven saves this season for the Braves, but was strong down the stretch. The run Wagner gave up in Atlanta’s regular-season finale was the first he had allowed since August 11. Wagner’s 1.43 ERA was the third-lowest in baseball among qualified relievers.

The Braves’ staff is formidable but the Giants have as much rotational depth as any team in baseball. They get the nod.

Edge: Giants

INTANGIBLES

Both teams waited until the final day of the regular season to lock up a playoff berth, but the Giants played better baseball down the stretch. Since September 1, San Francisco is 19-10 while the Braves are just 14-16.

The Braves won four of seven meetings between the teams in 2010, averaging four runs per game to the Giants’ three.

Atlanta has rallied around Bobby Cox and wants desperately to send the legendary skipper out a winner. We think that extra bit of motivation, along with the offensive shortcomings of the Giants, is enough to get the Braves through to the next round.

Edge: Braves

Pick: Braves in five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Payoff pitch: Wednesday's best MLB mound matchup

Cliff Lee, Texas Rangers (+121) vs. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays (-128)

Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.19 ERA)

The Rangers’ move to bring Lee to Arlington was based solely on this start.

Lee wasn’t overly impressive in his 15 starts for Texas, going just 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA. But there is no denying the left hander’s success in the postseason. He was untouchable in last year’s playoff run with the Philadelphia Phillies, going 4-0 and posting a 1.56 ERA through five starts.

Lee faced the Rays three times this season, losing all three starts while boasting a 4.56 ERA in those matchups. However, only one of those starts came while he was a member of the Rangers. Lee gave up six runs on 10 hits while striking out 10 batters over 7 2-3 innings of work in a 6-4 loss to Tampa Bay on August 16. He is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays.

"We knew it was going to be Tampa or New York, but now we know it's Tampa, so it should be a good series," Lee told MLB.com. "They're a good team and so are we. We're not going to play any slouches from here on out. It's the real deal. It's going to be a lot of fun. Hopefully, we go in there and play the game the way we can and move on to the next round."

Lee posted a mark of 13-15 over/under in his 28 starts this season.

David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA)

The Rays ace is in the running for the American League Cy Young after closing the season with four wins in his last five starts. Price even worked some relief innings this Saturday, tuning up for his showdown with the Rangers.

The southpaw pitched 5 2-3 innings of postseason baseball as a member of the 2008 Tampa Bay team that lost to the Phillies in the World Series. Price picked up one win and struck out eight batters with an ERA of 1.59.

Price faced the Rangers just once this season, giving up just two earned runs on five hits while striking out eight in six innings of work for a 6-4 win and outdueling Lee in the process. For his career, Price hasn’t been as successful versus Tampa Bay. He is just 1-2 with a 7.44 ERA when staring down the Rangers.

Price finished with a 13-18 over/under mark in his 31 starts this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 7)

You can bet Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins will be in the lineup when the club opens up its ALDS series against the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, but where he’ll hit in the lineup is still a mystery. Manager Charlie Manuel refused to shed any light on the situation in his media briefing Tuesday.

Rollins says his strained right hamstring feels much better and he did play the final week of the regular season, going 4-for-19 at the plate with a double and a grand slam. He looked tentative though, not like the speedster Phillies backers are used to seeing.

“I won’t be 100 percent when the playoffs start,” Rollins told reporters recently. “I won’t be 100 percent until next February, probably”.

Meanwhile, Shane Victorino hit .276 in 346 at-bats at the top of the order while Rollins sat out for much of the year. If Rollins doesn't bat first Wednesday, then it'll definitely be Victorino.

Rollins is a career .231 hitter in the postseason, but the Phillies were 31-6 this season when he scored a run and his energy at the top of the order – if he’s able to really crank it up – is obvious.

Philadelphia will be up against a Reds club that has lost 10 of its last 14 games on the road.

Pick: Under


New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (+130, 7.5)

If the New York Yankees are going to snap out of their late-season slide now that Game 1 of the ALDS is upon them, they’re probably going to need their captain to pull another one of his classic postseason performances. The 36-year-old Derek Jeter has all sorts of motivation to do just that.

The Yanks’ shortstop is in the final year of his 10-year, $189-million contract and is coming off the worst season of his career, hitting .270 with 67 RBIs. That said, while New York stumbled down the stretch, Jeter started to come around. He worked on shortening his swing in the cage and ended up with hits in 19 of New York’s last 20 games in the regular season while batting .326 over that span.

“He’s hitting the ball harder,” Yanks manager Joe Girardi told reporters. “He’s getting the ball in the air sometimes. He’s not getting jammed as much. You’ve got to be careful now when you go in there, because he’s getting to that ball again.”

With some rotation question marks after CC Sabathia takes the hill for Game 1, the Yanks need to get out of the gate in a hurry.

Pick: Yankees

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo

UAB +13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SB Professor Original NCAAF Wednesday 10/6

Wednesday's NCAAF Pick:

UAB +13*

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WUNDERDOG
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:35 PM Eastern)
5 UNIT* Pick: Texas +120 (moneyline)

The Rangers will wheel out their August addition in Cliff Lee. He will be opposed by American League All-Star game starting pitcher in David Price. Price had a great season from start to finish, posting 19 wins, with a 2.72 ERA. But Cliff Lee hasn't been far behind. He's got a 3.18 ERA in 28 games and he's been on fire of late, posting a 2.25 ERA in his last three games, allowing only 5 earned runs and 3 walks with 19 K's. The Rays have limped into postseason play, losing five of their last eight games, averaging just 2 runs per game over that span. Their offense has underperformed at home all season (they score nearly a run per game better on the road). The past two seasons, the Rangers are 65-66 as an underdog including 23-20 this season. This game is in their sweet spot. On the road this season they are 17-11 as a road dog of up to +125. Cliff lee is 30-23 as a road dog. I like the Rangers to surprise and grab the win here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

10* Rangers / Rays Under 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 303-304: UAB at Central Florida (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 73.995; Central Florida 88.713
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 12 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-12); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BASEBALL CRUSHER
PLAY OF THE DAY

Tampa Bay Rays (-128) over Texas Rangers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Hochman

POSTSEASON GAME OF THE MONTH
10* SF Giants -150 ML

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SUPER SPORTS GROUP

Cincinnati v. Philadelphia 5:10pm
PICK: Phillies RL (-1.5) +110

NY v. Minnesota 8:40pm
PICK: OVER 7.5 Game -105 Best bet of the day

Atlanta v. San Fran 9:40pm
PICK: UNDER 6.5 Game ev

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS 'N' PROFITS

1 UNIT* Tampa Bay Rays -130 vs. Texas Rangers
1 UNIT* Philadelphia Phillies - 1 1/2 (+105) vs. Cincinnati Reds
1 UNIT* New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins over 7 1/2

 

[szlem]

Spreitzer
blockbuster blowout Tampa Bay
ultimate knockout Twins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Troy (+3-1/2) Tuesday night.

Wednesday it's the Rangers. The profit is 20 sirignanos.